For the Home Estate/PUD market in October ’10 for Santa Barbara, Montecito, Hope Ranch, Carpinteria/Summerland and Goleta the number sales again declined marking 6 out of the last 7 months that they dropped from the previous month. Starting in August there were 81 sales followed by September when there were 78 and in October sales dipped again to 64 and the median sales price went up from $775,000 in August to $879,750 in September but again dropped to $864,000 in October.
The number of homes sold below $1 million continues to fall going from 53 in August to 47 in September and down to 38 in October. The price range from $1 to $2 million also saw sales decline from September when there were 25 down to 14 in October. What didn’t decline was the $2 million and up market which had 12 sales in October exactly where it was the previous month and the over $5 million market remained strong with 3 sales. But, it must be pointed out that all 3 of those over $5 million sales saw significant drops in price from their original asking price. One property slid from about an $8.9 million original list price to a $6.9 million sale, another declined from a $15.9 million original list price to a $10.7 million sale and the highest priced sale of the month declined from a $28.5 million original list price to an $18.44 million sale. These huge drops are the reason that the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio in October fell to just below 80%.
Looking at the Districts, starting in Carpinteria/Summerland we see 60 last year and 62 sales this year with the median sales price remaining basically flat dropping slightly from $675,000 in ’09 to $665,000 in ’10. In Montecito sales are also basically flat dropping from 120 last year to 119 this year. The median sales price did decline however dropping from $2.5 million last year to $2.375 million this year. The average sales price has gone up however going from $3,478,614 last year to $3,623, 021 this year.
On the East Side of Santa Barbara Sales are up by 8% from last year going from 183 in ’09 to 200 in ’10 and the median sales price has also gone up from $900,000 last year to $942,500 this year. The West Side of Santa Barbara has seen sales rise by 20% over last year going from 130 in ’09 to 159 in ’10 and the median sales price also went up from $735,500 last year to $795,000 this year.
Hope Ranch has seen 16 sales this year which is exactly what they had last year through October, but this year the median sales price went up to $2.675 million from $2.262 million last year and the average sales price has risen almost $1 million from $3.413 in ’09 to $4.352 in ’10.
Goleta South sales are up by 28% from 64 last year to 81 this year while the median sales price dipped a little from $700,000 last year to $675,500 this year. What fell further however was the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio which went from 90% last year down to 80% this year. Sales are also up in Goleta North going from 125 last year to 135 this year but the median sales price is basically flat going from $703,000 last year to $707,500 this year.
For the condo market in October ’10 unlike the Home/Estate market, sales rose from the previous month when there were 23 up to 33 in October. The median sales price has also been going up from $436,000 in August to $460,000 in September to $475,000 in October. But, while the sales went up in October the escrows went down, dropping from 35 in September to 29 in October and the median list price on the escrows fell from $459,000 in September to $415,000 in October.
Through the first 10 months of ’10 the numbers of sales, 271, is almost exactly what they were last year when there were 262 closings. The median sales price is down however dropping from $465,000 in ’09 to $445,000 in ’10 but the average sales price is almost exactly where it was last year, rising just slightly from $525,945 in ’09 to $526,785 in ’10.
While the sales are up, the numbers of escrows is declining from 301 at this time last year to 281 this year, and the median list price is also falling slightly from $469,900 last year to $459,000. With sales flat and escrows falling, the inventory has basically been rising since May up to the current approximately 160 condos for sale from Carpinteria to Goleta.
Looking at the Districts, we see that in Carpinteria/Summerland sales are up 15% from 44 last year to 52 this year. But, the median sales price has dropped from $420,000 in ’09 to $386,500 in ’10. Montecito has more than tripled the numbers of sales that it experienced last year going from 6 to 19 and the median sales price has gone up from $830,000 last year to $1,025,000 this year.
On the East Side of Santa Barbara condo sales are up 18% going from 50 last year to 59 this year, but the median sales price has gone down from $529,900 last year to $475,000 this year. The West Side has also seen a rise in sales going from 62 to 69, but the median sales price has dipped slightly from $510,000 last year to $499,000 this year.
Goleta South condo sales have dropped dramatically by 30% going from 60 to 42 and the median sales price has gone down from $455,000 last year to $365,000 this year. Goleta North sales have also declined dropping from 47 last year to 33 this year but the median sales price has gone up slightly from $395,000 last year to $408,000 this year.
While the numbers of homes sold declined markedly in October the numbers of opened escrows continued moving forward. More than 90 escrows were opened in the month which means 2 out of the last 3 months have seen that many, but while the numbers of escrows went up the median list price on those escrows remained at about $850,000. With the surge in Home escrows, sales for the rest of 2010 should remain strong but the median sales price should remain at around $850,000 for the foreseeable future which is approximately where we ended 2009.
Condo sales on the other hand are going up while the escrows are falling. The median sales price while surging for the past 3 months will still be slightly below where it was last year when it was $465,000 through October. This year the median sales price is at $446,000 through October and will mark the 5th year in a row that it has fallen. The decline in condo price is easing however and should start leveling off shortly
Gary Woods
