Each month a very generous colleague, Gary Woods compiles all the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing and Cort sales data and provides many of us in the real estate industry with a synopsis of the current market. Thank you Gary, as always your expertise and data is very appreciated!
For Santa Barbara, Montecito, Hope Ranch, Carpinteria/Summerland and Goleta for the Home Estate/PUD market for the month of March 2011 a significant number of those escrows that opened in the first two months of the year and those that continued opening in the third month completed the buying process. In March there were 83 sales up from 49 in February and 42 in January. But, the median sales price which came up from $819,500 in January to $845,000 in February fell back to $714,000 in March.
This drop in the median sales price was prompted by the 50+ sales below $1 million that occurred during the month up from the low 30s in February. Sales in the $1 to $2 million bracket also went up but only a little, while the over $2 million range almost tripled going from 5 in February to 13 in March with 5 of those sales selling for over $5 million.
Also going up in March was the numbers of escrows which went to 106 for the month up from 80 in February. What didn’t go up however was the median list price on those escrows which remained at right around $800,000. That median list price on the escrows is amplified by the approximately $787,500 median sold price for the year through March down from about $810,000 the previous year.
Looking at the Districts, we see that sales are down for Carpinteria/Summerland from 19 in ’10 to 12 in ’11 with the median sales price dropping from about $850,000 last year to right around $670,000 this year. But, the numbers of escrows are way up this year from 13 to 19 while the median list price on those escrows remains around $675,000 for both years.
Sales are up in Montecito however from 24 to 27 and the median sales price is also up from $2 million to about $2.37 million. The numbers of escrows is even farther ahead with 44 this year compared to 28 last year with the median list price on those escrows also up from just under $2 million last year to roughly $2.5 million this year.
On the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are down from 47 to 46 but the median sales price is up from about $890,000 to $895,000. The numbers of escrows are even farther ahead of the ’10 pace with 68 this year compared to 54 last year and the median list price on those escrows is up from $925,000 to $995,000.
On the West Side of Santa Barbara sales are up from 39 to 40 but this year the median sales price fell to $650,000 down from $785,000 last year. The numbers of escrows are also up from 47 last year with an $850,000 median list price to 51 this year with a $750,000 median list price.
In Hope Ranch sales are down from 6 to 4 and the median sold price is down from $3,237,500 in ’10 to $1,775,000 in ’11. The escrows are the same for both years with 8 while the median list price on those escrows is also approximately the same for both years at just under $2 million.
For Goleta South sales are off from 17 to 14 but the median sales price is up from just under $600,000 to just over $650,000. The numbers of escrows are the same however with 18 in both years but the median list price on those escrows is down from $729,000 to $562,500.
Goleta North has sales way up from 34 to 42 but the median sales price is the same both years at $685,000. The numbers of escrows is very close however with 43 last year and 42 this year but the median list price on those escrows is down from about $750,000 last year to about $700,000 this year.
After starting out the year behind in the numbers of sales we’ve about reached parity with 2010 numbers. But, while the numbers of escrows are up by about 18% the median list price on those escrows is down about 6% while the median sales price for the year has dropped about 3% to $787,500.
For condos, the numbers of sales started to move up from the previous 2 months when there were 16 in both January and February but they only rose to 21 for March. The median sales price fell to just below $400,000 for the month down from $422,500 in February but up from $382,500 in January. For the year, the median sales price of condos stands at $399,000 5% below where it was in March ’10 when it was $420,000.
The numbers of escrows came up slightly in March to 30 from 24 the previous month but the median list price on those escrows fell rather dramatically from $415,750 in February to $359,450 in March. For the entire year sales are down from 66 to 53 for a 20% decline and escrows are down about 19% falling from 80 to 67. There was 1 sale above $1 million in March with 4 sales between $600,000 and $800,000. But, 12 of the 21 sales were between $300,000 and $450,000 with 2 from $250,000 to $300,000.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has 15 sales in both ’10 and 11 but the median sales price has dropped from $382,500 to $353,500. The numbers of escrows is slightly up however going from 18 last year to 19 this year while the median list price on those escrows fell from $409,900 last year to $363,000 this year.
In Montecito there have been 5 sales this year with a median sales price of $645,000 compared to 5 last year with a median sales price of $1,075,000. The numbers of escrows are the same with 4 for both years with a median list price of $1,075,000 in ’10 and for ‘11 a median list price of $1,148,500.
On the East Side, sales are down by half going from 16 to 8 but the median sales price has remained stable drifting down slightly from $417,500 last year to $414,750 this year. The numbers of escrows are also down from 14 to 10 but the median list price on those escrows is up from $499,000 to $619,000.
For the West Side, the numbers of sales are down from 17 to 9 with the median sales price dropping from $455,500 to $425,000. The numbers of escrows is even farther down from 24 to 12 with the median list price on those escrows down from $499,000 to $409,500.
Goleta South is rebounding this year with sales up from 7 to 14 and the median sales price is up from $260,000 to $355,000. The numbers of escrows are also up from 12 to 17 with the median list price on those escrows going from $295,000 to $329,000.
For Goleta North both years have 7 sales but the median sales price this year is down from $455,000 last year to $365,000 this year. The numbers of escrows are down from 12 to 7 and the median list price on those escrows is down from $419,000 to $379,000.
The decline in sales in the condo market is primarily due to the increase in purchases in the $500,000 to $800,000 Single Family home market. That price range of homes saw 45 sales in the month of March alone. When buyers look at a $500,000 to $600,000 condo and add in the substantial Home Owners fees which can be in the $300 to $500 a month range those $700,000 to $800,000 homes start to look attractive. This increase in sales of the lower priced homes is the reason the overall median sales price of homes is declining which also pushes the median sales price of condos down.
I’m encouraged by the numbers of Home Estate/PUD escrows opened in the first quarter of the year but it looks like the substantial amount of activity is going to remain in that $500,000 to $800,000 bracket. The $1 to $2 million range seems to be stuck in neutral however registering roughly the same numbers of sales each month while the over $2 million market has taken off again at least in March.
It looks like interest rates are getting ready to start moving up and with the $729,000 maximum FHA loan maximum sunsetting in September prices below $1 million could continue to drift down. But, with the substantial amount of demand in that price range there could even be a slight upward pressure in prices.
Gary Woods
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